A Harvard student emails me the above photo. He says,
I'm on holiday in Mykonos, Greece, and just spotted the sign in the attached photo....Could a real exchange rate adjustment finally be on the way for Greece?
Friday, 9 July 2010
Prices adjust when the exchange rate can't
A Harvard student emails me the above photo. He says,
Wednesday, 7 July 2010
road show costumes
The youth at my church are doing a performance for what we call a "road show" - basically the kids from each congregation in the area put together a short, musical-type skit, and then we all get together to watch and enjoy. I'm helping out with costumes. It's a good thing my mom arrived this week, because I'm not sure if I would have been able to get it done otherwise.
We have a group of cheerleaders in our skit called the Lucky Charms, so I made them lucky horseshoe shirts, some old-school pom pom hair bands, and a megaphone prop. The shirts are kind of fun because I added glitter to the top coat of the stencil paint (these shirts are freezer paper stenciled) and attached some rhinestones using Elmer's Craft Bond Fabric and Paper Glue. They should really sparkle under the stage lights.
Phew. So glad these are done.
P.S. I'm having a baby TOMORROW. Wish me luck. :)
We have a group of cheerleaders in our skit called the Lucky Charms, so I made them lucky horseshoe shirts, some old-school pom pom hair bands, and a megaphone prop. The shirts are kind of fun because I added glitter to the top coat of the stencil paint (these shirts are freezer paper stenciled) and attached some rhinestones using Elmer's Craft Bond Fabric and Paper Glue. They should really sparkle under the stage lights.
Phew. So glad these are done.
P.S. I'm having a baby TOMORROW. Wish me luck. :)
Are stimulus skeptics logically incoherent?
Paul Krugman writes:
That is, businesses may be reluctant to invest in an economy that they expect to be distorted by historically unprecedented levels of taxation in the future. The more the government borrows, the higher taxes will need to go, the more distorted the future economy will be, and the less attractive is investment today.
I am pretty sure Paul would not find this line of argument persuasive. As far as I can tell from reading his commentary over the years, he does not believe that the distortionary effects of taxes are particularly large and so they do not figure much into his policy analysis. But many other economists (and I suspect many stimulus-skeptics like the tea-partiers) believe that taxes have significant incentive effects and can prevent the economy from reaching its full potential. Their argument seems logically coherent, even if it relies on a different set of parameter values for the relevant elasticities than Paul believes to be true.
Addendum: In another post, Paul plots investment and the output gap, points out the well-known fact that investment is highly procyclical, and then concludes that investment is down because the economy is weak. I wish figuring out cause-and-effect were so easy!
When I first learned Keynesian economics, the causation was often taken to go in the other direction: Animal spirits drove investment, which in turn drove the business cycle. Unfortunately, eyeballing time series rarely tells us what causes what. Correlation is not causation, even in the blogosphere.
There’s now a lot of talk about the fact that U.S. corporations are sitting on a lot of cash, but not spending it. I don’t find that particularly puzzling: with huge excess capacity, why invest in building even more capacity. But almost everyone seems to agree that if we could somehow get businesses to spend some of that cash, it would create jobs.
Which then raises the question: how can you believe that, and not also believe that if the U.S. government were to borrow some of the cash corporations aren’t spending, and spend it on, say, public works, this would also create jobs?....
I have never seen a coherent objection to this line of argument.A coherent objection to this line of argument might be the following: If the government borrowed the money to spend, it would need to eventually pay the money back. That means higher future taxes, on top of the future tax increases that President Obama already will need to impose to finance his spending plans. Higher future taxes reduce demand today for at least a couple reasons. First, there are Ricardian effects to the extent that consumers take future taxes into account when calculating their permanent income. Second, those future taxes are not likely to be lump-sum but will be distortionary; it is plausible that at least some of those future tax distortions may adversely affect the incentive to invest today.
That is, businesses may be reluctant to invest in an economy that they expect to be distorted by historically unprecedented levels of taxation in the future. The more the government borrows, the higher taxes will need to go, the more distorted the future economy will be, and the less attractive is investment today.
I am pretty sure Paul would not find this line of argument persuasive. As far as I can tell from reading his commentary over the years, he does not believe that the distortionary effects of taxes are particularly large and so they do not figure much into his policy analysis. But many other economists (and I suspect many stimulus-skeptics like the tea-partiers) believe that taxes have significant incentive effects and can prevent the economy from reaching its full potential. Their argument seems logically coherent, even if it relies on a different set of parameter values for the relevant elasticities than Paul believes to be true.
Addendum: In another post, Paul plots investment and the output gap, points out the well-known fact that investment is highly procyclical, and then concludes that investment is down because the economy is weak. I wish figuring out cause-and-effect were so easy!
When I first learned Keynesian economics, the causation was often taken to go in the other direction: Animal spirits drove investment, which in turn drove the business cycle. Unfortunately, eyeballing time series rarely tells us what causes what. Correlation is not causation, even in the blogosphere.
Tuesday, 6 July 2010
Sunday, 4 July 2010
Friday, 2 July 2010
how to make printables on picnik
Several people asked how I used picnik.com to make the recipe card in my last post, and since I haven't made much else this week, I thought I'd share. You see, I use picnik for much more than editing photos. It is where I make my blog banner and buttons, party invites, gift tags, cupcake toppers, you name it. It is kind of fabulous.
Start with a blank .jpg image. An easy way to do that is to just open Microsoft Paint and save the file without doing anything to it. Upload your blank picture to picnik.com, and it will look like this:
A blank canvas, ready to turn into whatever you wish!
Starting under the Edit tab, you can crop your image to whatever size you wish. I cropped mine square.
I go to the Create tab next, and usually the first thing I do is add a background color. In the Effects section, scroll down to the Duo-Tone effect. Since you are working with a blank image, it will fill in a solid color of your choice.
I'm going to turn this image into a round cupcake topper, so the next place I go is the Frames section.
Select Rounded Edges and turn that Corner Radius to the maximum setting for a perfect circle (if your starting image is a square). You can also round the edges just a bit, add a square frame ... just play around to find what you want!
Next, I go to Stickers if I want to add an image. I'll be honest ... the stickers aren't mind-blowing. And there are some better options when you purchase the premium membership. But, there are some good free images in there if you look around. I'll create a cupcake topper using only free picnik features.
You can turn your background color into a border by adding a geometric shape. You'll be eye-balling the centering, but it isn't too difficult.
Then I find a fun image to add, like this bus (sorry for the color swap - I changed my mind). Some of my favorite free images come from the Common Symbols, Beards, Iconian Stickers, and Floralia sections.
Next, add text. Here I used my favorite font, GeosansLight.
If you right click on an image or text, you get a few helpful options. For example, if you want to change the order of your layers, you can select an image or text, right click, and Send to Back. Or, if you want two of the exact same images, select the image, right click, and Duplicate Shape.
This comes in especially useful for when you add multiple text boxes, and you want them to all be a consistent text color. Select the original text, right click on it, and Duplicate Text. You can edit the duplicated text to say something new, but it will be in the same color as the original.
When you are happy with your image, go to the Save & Share tab and save to your computer. You now have an image you can use for just about anything! For cupcake toppers like the example above, I import the image into a Word Document or Powerpoint, re-size as needed, and duplicate it to make a whole page to print.
If you like my bus topper, here is the image. Right click to save the image to your own computer, and feel free to use it for cupcakes, stickers, or whatever you'd like (for personal use only). I can see this as part of a really cute Transportation-themed child's birthday party.
I hope that helps! I really only touched the bare-bones of what this site can do when creating an image from scratch, so play around with it. And if you use this program and have tips to share, please leave a comment!
Start with a blank .jpg image. An easy way to do that is to just open Microsoft Paint and save the file without doing anything to it. Upload your blank picture to picnik.com, and it will look like this:
A blank canvas, ready to turn into whatever you wish!
Starting under the Edit tab, you can crop your image to whatever size you wish. I cropped mine square.
I go to the Create tab next, and usually the first thing I do is add a background color. In the Effects section, scroll down to the Duo-Tone effect. Since you are working with a blank image, it will fill in a solid color of your choice.
I'm going to turn this image into a round cupcake topper, so the next place I go is the Frames section.
Select Rounded Edges and turn that Corner Radius to the maximum setting for a perfect circle (if your starting image is a square). You can also round the edges just a bit, add a square frame ... just play around to find what you want!
Next, I go to Stickers if I want to add an image. I'll be honest ... the stickers aren't mind-blowing. And there are some better options when you purchase the premium membership. But, there are some good free images in there if you look around. I'll create a cupcake topper using only free picnik features.
You can turn your background color into a border by adding a geometric shape. You'll be eye-balling the centering, but it isn't too difficult.
Next, add text. Here I used my favorite font, GeosansLight.
If you right click on an image or text, you get a few helpful options. For example, if you want to change the order of your layers, you can select an image or text, right click, and Send to Back. Or, if you want two of the exact same images, select the image, right click, and Duplicate Shape.
This comes in especially useful for when you add multiple text boxes, and you want them to all be a consistent text color. Select the original text, right click on it, and Duplicate Text. You can edit the duplicated text to say something new, but it will be in the same color as the original.
When you are happy with your image, go to the Save & Share tab and save to your computer. You now have an image you can use for just about anything! For cupcake toppers like the example above, I import the image into a Word Document or Powerpoint, re-size as needed, and duplicate it to make a whole page to print.
If you like my bus topper, here is the image. Right click to save the image to your own computer, and feel free to use it for cupcakes, stickers, or whatever you'd like (for personal use only). I can see this as part of a really cute Transportation-themed child's birthday party.
I hope that helps! I really only touched the bare-bones of what this site can do when creating an image from scratch, so play around with it. And if you use this program and have tips to share, please leave a comment!
A New Problem for Insurance Markets
An article in the Wall Street Journal notes that scientists have identified genetic markers for the proclivity to live a long life. This raises a host of interesting economic questions:
- Will insurance companies start offering better life-insurance rates to those with these markers?
- Will they require annuity purchasers to take this test and offer the long-lived worse rates?
- If insurance companies do not use these markers, perhaps because of regulation, will the availability of these tests cause the markets for life insurance and annuities to unravel because of increased adverse selection?
- In light of the above considerations, what should public policy be toward insurance companies using these tests?
- To the extent that public policy is motivated by utilitarian concerns, should there be redistribution based on the outcome of these tests?
- If so, in which direction should it go? Away from those who are long-lived and can work a long life, or toward them, as they have longer periods of old age and retirement to finance?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Subscribe To
Posts
All Comments
