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Sunday, 31 October 2010

halloweened out

We may have outdid it on the Halloween front.  After 3 days straight of Halloween festivities, I am totally pooped. 

 Oscar and his BFF, Audrey, were big fans of the trick or treating.  The hand-holding kills me.

Remember those other costumes I made?  Take a look at them in action:

   Toddlers are so dang cute.


I'm ready to move on to Thanksgiving and Christmas!  I have a Thanksgiving Dinner event coming up quickly for the ladies at my church, and I'm starting my first Christmas craft this week.  Prepare yourself for some hand-stitched felt goodness.


In the meantime, make sure you head over to Crafting with the Stars to vote on Round 2!  This time you can vote for your 3 favorite projectsMelanie is rocking this competition - I love what she made.  Can you guess her project?

Quantitative Easin'

Friday, 29 October 2010

Ruby's Halloween costume: baby aerobics instructor

Ruby's current wardrobe basically consists of onesies, leg warmers and headbands, so her Halloween costume was an easy choice - baby aerobics instructor it is!

All she required was a major accessory:

 Check out these legs.  She definitely has the physique to pull this look off.  Watch out, Jane Fonda!
 Comfy costumes make for happy babies.
 I have to admit ... I love my felt boombox!  It's almost as cute as Ruby.

The quest for freedom and safety: Why I donated $100,000 to YesOn19

The common theme uniting most of my efforts is the desire to be free. One of the reasons I'm so interested in startups is that they give people the freedom to create, independent of the institutional limitations found in large companies. This is why unexpected new ideas and techniques (such as new languages or development practices) often appear first in startups. Of course the startups don't always succeed, but at least I'm free to pursue my own ideas, even if others don't believe in them. And when a startup is successful, it can provide a great deal of financial freedom to the people who built it.

Internal freedom is also very important, though often less obvious. If we are always held back by our own fears and self-limiting beliefs, then we aren't really free. That is why my previous post on serendipity is largely about escaping ego-fear and other negative limitations.

Benjamin Franklin once wrote, "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."

Philosophically, I agree with that. However, if we don't feel safe, if we can't go out in public without fearing for our lives and the lives of our family, then we aren't really free. Since becoming a parent, I've come to understand why parents often seem especially fearful. Our children are so precious to us, and we must keep them safe. I can understand the impulse to simply make more rules, to build taller walls, and to lockup anyone who seems scary.

I think the real point of Benjamin Franklin's quote is that when we destroy freedom, we are ultimately destroying safety as well. This is most apparent when we examine the disastrous effects of drug prohibition.

Not only is prohibition an attack on our basic right to control our own bodies and minds (a philosophical point which most people probably don't care about), but prohibition also provides a multi-billion dollar subsidy to violent criminal organizations that threaten our physical safety and security, something everyone cares about.

The drug cartels have already overrun much of Mexico, and that violence will inevitably spill over in to the United States if we continue subsidising them with one of the world's most lucrative monopolies.

The alternative path is to begin restoring individual freedom and responsibility, defund the drug cartels, and instead shift those dollars towards roads, parks, public safety, and other beneficial causes. This is the solution offered by California's proposition 19, the "Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010".

Some politicians have argued that proposition 19 is "flawed". To me, this seems like a weak defense of the status quo from politicians afraid to stand out on a controversial issue. Of course it's not perfect -- no law is perfect. However, the current system of drug prohibition is much, much worse. "Perfect" is not one of the options offered on Tuesday's ballot. We can either choose "much better" (Yes on 19), or "keep the current, disastrously bad, system" (No on 19). 

If proposition 19 passes, the immediate effect may not be that significant due to federal challenges and such. However, I believe the long-term effects will be enormous. Prohibition is a disaster. Many politicians will admit to this fact, however most of them have been too timid to actually do anything about it, to lead the country towards safer, saner policies. In this case, the voters must lead, and the politicians will follow. Even if 19 does not pass (Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives it "even odds" of passing), it will still mark an important shift in the debate over drugs, especially if YOU vote for it.

And that's why I decided to donate $100,000 towards the Yes on 19 campaign. It's tempting to wait for the "perfect" solution to the drug issue, but meanwhile millions of lives are being destroyed by the current system. That's evil.

Here are a few more thoughts on the issue:

If you would like to be part of the solution, please share this or other articles, and encourage your friends and family to show up at the polls on Tuesday and vote "YES on 19" (assuming they live in California). Also, donate to YesOn19 -- it's not too late (ads are still being purchased).


A Rolling Stone gathers no taxes

For skeptics about the incentive effects of taxation:
The Stones are famously tax-averse. I broach the subject with Keith [Richards] in Camp X-Ray, as he calls his backstage lair. There is incense in the air and Ronnie Wood drifts in and out--it is, in other words, a perfect venue for such a discussion. "The whole business thing is predicated a lot on the tax laws," says Keith, Marlboro in one hand, vodka and juice in the other. "It's why we rehearse in Canada and not in the U.S. A lot of our astute moves have been basically keeping up with tax laws, where to go, where not to put it. Whether to sit on it or not. We left England because we'd be paying 98 cents on the dollar. We left, and they lost out. No taxes at all. I don't want to screw anybody out of anything, least of all the governments that I work with. We put 30% in holding until we sort it out." No wonder Keith chooses to live not in London, or even New York City, but in Weston, Conn.
Source. (HT: Matthew Kahn)

Wednesday, 27 October 2010

halloween bones

I thought I'd have a few more years of picking Oscar's Halloween costume (last year he was a blue bird), but it is hard to resist his heart's true desire.  This kid LOVES bones.  He is going nuts for all of the skeleton decorations around town.  Except they are not skeletons ... they are "Halloween Bones."

When I showed him the completed costume yesterday, he said, "Cute!  Wear it!" and has wanted to wear it every minute since.

It makes him jump for joy.

The costume is a cross between this toddler skeleton costume from Craft Passion and my friend Chelsea's Pottery Barn knock-off skeleton costume.  I loved bits of both.  I used white fleece for my bones.  I thought it would hold up to repeated washing better than felt.

I also made him a little skull-cap hat using this pattern from Leila and Ben.
 


We had a little playgroup Halloween party this morning, and Oscar looked really cute in his costume.

Speaking of cute:

Ruby is a doll-face.  I mean, I know I'm her mom, and that means I think she's gorgeous by default ... but am I wrong?  So cute.  She was a chubby teddy bear today since I haven't finished her real costume.


Hooray for Halloween!  I inherited my love for Halloween from my mom - her dad's birthday was October 31 (and he had a major sweet tooth), so naturally it was a big holiday for her family.  She always made it a special day for us growing up with playfully spooky decorations, yummy treats, and fantastic homemade costumes.  I'm so glad I now get to pass on the Halloween love to my kids.

Monday, 25 October 2010

because it's halloween. la, la, la, la, la!

Oscar is getting really into Halloween, and I love it.  He wants to watch this little song on youtube about 20 times a day.

Oscar and Ruby's costumes are still in the works, but I've been helping out with a few extra Halloween costumes:

Nacho Libre for my cute little nephew:
I used the Perfect Diaper Cover pattern from MADE (with a few extra inches added to the top to make them appropriately high-waisted), the Little Leggings pattern from Lil' Blue Boo, and a cape of my own creation.

To make the easiest cape ever, just take a t-shirt, and leaving the collar intact, cut off the front and sleeves.  I also trimmed the back so it would taper up to the top.  If the collar fits well, you can leave it as is to slip over the head.  I trimmed this one down to fit a toddler, so cut the collar and added a velcro closure.  I also zig-zag stitched around the cut part of the collar to finish it off.  You don't need to hem the sides or bottom of the cape because jersey fabric doesn't fray!


Next up, the Man in the Yellow hat for a playgroup friend:

The hat is made with stiff felt and the tie is made with a double layer of soft felt backed with fusible fleece.   The hat was tricky, especially with the stiff felt.  It took a lot of fidgeting and adjustments, so I'm not going to try to tell you how I made it.  I also made him some pants, but I don't have them for pictures.

Hopefully I can update this later with pictures of the kids in costume!  Now I need to get to work on costumes for my own little ones.  :)

UPDATE:  See the kiddos in costume HERE.


Also ... the first round for projects for Crafting with the Stars is up HERE and voting is open until tonight - 10 p.m. MST.

I can't tell you which project my partner made, but it is gorgeous and I love it.  I really didn't do anything but cheer her on.  Great job, Melanie!  All of the projects are really well done - I think you'll be impressed.  So go VOTE!

Pricing in Venezuela

From my inbox:
Dear Professor,
I´m from Venezuela. And this picture shows the kind of things you find when you go to a Mercado Bicentenario in Venezuela (which is the new name of a chain of private markets -Cada and Exito- recently expropiated and now runned by the Government).
This one is from Mercado Bicentenario, in Centro Comercial Ciudad Tamanaco (CCCT), a mall, in Caracas, Venezuela.
It says:
Description of the product: Diana Oil.
Fair Price: 4,73 Bfs.
Capitalist Price: 7 Bfs.
% of savings: 32%.
My best regards, and congratulations for your blog, books and everything!

Sunday, 24 October 2010

Serendipity finds you

Here is an interesting comment from Hacker News, on a story about someone turning down an early Google offer:
Similar thing happened to me in 1999. I realized Google was way cooler than alta vista and better at finding unknown things rather than Yahoo's directory. Truly the future, I thought. I sent in a resume to do some kind of work not development related; data center & sys admin stuff. They called me twice but I convinced myself that they would not have hired me anyways so I never called back.

Whether or not ignoring Google's calls was the right decision for him, his reason for not taking the call (fear of rejection) isn't great.

I don't have many positive memories from high school, but the one that has stayed with me more than any other comes from the first day of my 11th grade English class. My teacher (I believe his name was "Mr. May") shared a brief anecdote from the prior evening. He was driving home in the rain, and noticed two people on bicycles along the side of the road. He stopped to ask if they needed any help, and ended up driving them back to his house, where they dried off and had dinner with him and his wife. During dinner, the couple shared the stories from their ongoing bike ride across the country.

It's not a very dramatic story, but I loved the serendipitous nature of it, both on the part of the couple having adventures biking across the country, and my teacher who saw people along the road and invited them into his home. None of it was planned -- they simply allowed it to happen. It was inspirational to me because it felt like the right way to live, the fun way to live. I don't think that's how most people operate though.

My own story of how I ended up at Google in 1999 is rather boring. I was interested both in startups, and Linux (which was still somewhat fringe at the time), so I sent my resume to a few companies that I had seen mentioned on Slashdot (a rather lazy job search, in hindsight). Fortunately, most of them never even responded, and only one actually offered me a job, Google. I was skeptical of their business and didn't expect it to last long, but it seemed like it could be fun and educational, so I accepted.

Obviously that's an example of rather extreme luck, but I've noticed that most of the good things that happen to me follow that general pattern, and aren't part of any "plan". The story of how I met my wife is remarkably similar. Shortly after moving to California, I signed up for match.com, read a bunch of profiles, emailed three of them, and only one responded. I was very much not looking for someone to marry, but that's what happened anyway. As they say, "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

My plans rarely work (unless they are boringly simple), but serendipity has been good to me, so over time I've tried to make the most of that. My theory of serendipity is still evolving, but from what I've seen, it's better to think in terms of "allowing" serendipity rather than "seeking" it or "creating" it. Opportunity is all around us, but we have beliefs and habits that block it.

The two biggest blocks to serendipity seem to be ego-fear and "other plans".

I'm using the term "ego-fear" to describe fears that go beyond rational concern. For example, you wouldn't run out into the middle of a freeway thanks to a healthy fear of getting run over by a car -- that's not ego-fear. However, the fear that often keeps people from public speaking, talking to strangers, interviewing for jobs, etc is typically driven by fear of embarrassment, humiliation, rejection, criticism, etc -- that's ego-fear. Sometimes it can be difficult to separate the two types of fear because ego-fear will rationalize itself as healthy fear, e.g. "I don't want to talk to that stranger because they could attack me, or waste my time."

The HN commenter quoted above who never accepted Google's calls because, in his words, "they would not have hired me anyways", seems to be experiencing quite a bit of ego-fear, fear of rejection and humiliation. That fear is probably blocking a lot of great opportunities.

It's tempting to try and think your way out of ego-fear, but I suspect that only makes the problem worse by generating a more complex tangle of rationalizations for the fear. Fear is defeated by confrontation -- avoidance only makes it stronger.

"You gain strength, courage, and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You must do the thing which you think you cannot do." - Eleanor Roosevelt

The program for eliminating ego-fear and unblocking serendipity is very simple: seek ego-fear. Hunt it down and soak in it. Steal its energy. This is, by definition, scary. That's good.

The other big serendipity block seems to be "the plan". Serendipity and luck are by their very nature unpredictable, and therefore not part of any good plan. When something unexpected happens, things are no longer "going according to plan", and there is a tendency to view the unexpected event either as a distraction, or as a frustrating obstacle to success.

The difference between a life full of frustrating obstacles, and a life full of serendipity, is largely a matter of interpretation. It can be difficult, but the most beneficial response to unexpected events is a sense of gratitude. Even seemingly adverse events can lead to something great. Accept what is given. (see Yes Man for a cute caricature of this mindset)

"Plans are worthless. Planning is essential." - Dwight D. Eisenhower

Planning in itself is not a bad thing, but picking a single plan and obsessively sticking to it doesn't allow for much serendipity. The world is very complicated, and we humans are very stupid, so it's good to be flexible and open minded about things. Instead of having one plan, have one thousand plans, and revise them as necessary. 

The desire to have "a plan" can also cause "paralysis of analysis" -- we put all of our energy into formulating the perfect plan, and consequently never actually do anything. The more effective approach is to simply pick a plan with the knowledge that it's flawed, set the plan in action, and then adapt, revise, or switch plans as the world unfolds.

I suspect the desire to have a definite plan is also partially rooted in fear. Uncertainty can be scary, and having a plan helps create the illusion of predictability in a very unpredictable world. However, if we actually manage to reduce risk and unpredictability, then we are also reducing serendipity. This is one reason why large organizations often have trouble producing innovation -- they want it to be planned and scheduled, but that just kills it.

The whole notion that plans are something that we should "stick to" makes them distracting enough that I prefer to call them "ideas" or "rough sketches" instead. Personally, I try to avoid having plans for my life, but I have many ideas. Which ones actually happen will be a surprise to me. It's more fun that way.

Christy's First Column

Christy Romer has joined the line-up of columnists for the Sunday NY Times Business section (along with Shiller, Thaler, Frank, Cowen, and me).  You can read her first column here.  It presents the case against fiscal austerity in the present economic situation.

Wednesday, 20 October 2010

Kinsley's Mistakes

Michael Kinsley, one of my favorite liberal journalists, says I got my math wrong in my latest NY Times column.  Let me take exception to four points he makes:

1.  Mike says, "Mankiw assumes that his investment earns 8 percent every year and is subject to the corporate income tax at 35 percent and then to the individual income tax at its full fury of 40 percent on whatever’s left."

No, I did not assume that at all.  If I had assumed that, then the after-tax return would be

8 x (1-.35) x (1-.4) = 3.19 percent.

In the article, I used “about 4 percent” as the after-tax return, recognizing that dividends and capital gains are taxed at a lower rate.

2. Mike says, "The top marginal tax rate on dividends and capital gains — the two main ways investors recoup their investments — is 15 percent."

No, it is not, at least under the current administration's policies.  President Obama has proposed raising the tax rate on dividends and capital gains to 20 percent. In addition, the healthcare bill applies the new 3.8 percent Medicare tax to investment income. Moreover, the state of Massachusetts (and many others) taxes that income as well. So my marginal tax rate on dividends and capital gains is really about 27 percent.

That would yield an after-tax return of

8 x (1-.35) x (1-.27) = 3.8 percent.

I rounded up to 4 percent, as a rough attempt to take into account the benefits of deferral.

3.  Mike says, "Mankiw’s assumption of an 8 percent return for 30 straight years seems optimistic."

No, I don't think so.  Recall that this is a rate of return before all taxes, including corporate income taxes.  Also, it is worth thinking for a moment about whether this return is best viewed as real or nominal.  (I skirted this issue in my column, for reasons of space.)  The tax code taxes nominal returns--that is, capital gains are not indexed for inflation.  As a result, for purposes of tax calculations such as these, the right return to use is arguably a nominal return.  A long-term before-all-tax nominal return of 8 percent seems, if anything, too low.

4.  Mike says, "If Mankiw’s marginal tax rate has actually been 80 percent for all these years, it doesn’t seem to have affected his incentives very much, and 90 percent won’t, either."

Mike might recall that he has, as an editor, several times tried to recruit me to write something for him.  I turned him down every time.  If he had offered me a reasonable fee, and somehow could have promised that this income and all the investment returns it subsequently generated would be free of all taxes, I might well have accepted the jobs.

---------

Addendum: Some blogger named Barry Ritholtz poses a bunch of questions for me, which I won't bother taking the time to answer.  Unless, of course, he offers to incentivize me sufficiently.  For free, however, I will answer one of them: "You teach at Harvard and live in 'Taxachusetts.' If state taxes are so important, have you considered teaching at Yale, and living in much lower state tax land of Connecticut?"

First of all, the top state income tax rate is higher in Connecticut than it is in Massachusetts.

Second, Yale?  Are you serious?  Yale?

Oscar's car party

Top:  1.  race car coloring track  2. decorated styrofoam cooler  3. paper pennant bunting
Bottom:  7.  race car water bottle labels  8.  race car crayons  9. cupcake toppers

Oscar's birthday party was supposed to be at the park, but the weather was uncooperative.  :(  We moved the party inside to our apartment to avoid the rain, and although it was close quarters, we all had a great time.

 

I used Pingg.com to send out invitations.  Normally I am not a e-vite sort of girl, but it really kept things simple and it was nice to have the rsvp's tracked automatically.   Did you know you can use your own image to create your invitations?  I designed the little red race car using a combo of MS Paint and Picnik.com and then used it in the invitations and party decor.



All of the little guests were 2 years old, so we avoided organized games and activities.  Instead, we set out a large piece of craft paper with a painted road to color with race car crayons and Oscar's new car playmat with a big bucket of matchbox cars to zoom around.

My Silhouette craft cutter saved a lot of time with the party decorations.  I used it to cut the pennants for the bunting, the backing for the watch-me-grow birthday banner, and the little cars that decorated the styrofoam ice cream cooler.


I ordered a giant red balloon in hopes of extra cute birthday photos.  In my mind I pictured a bright sunny day at the park, little boy, big balloon.  Instead, it has rained for the last 4 days straight and I don't have a good photo of Oscar with his balloon, which is now sagging.  :(  Oh well, you can't win them all.  You can find big round balloons HERE at Darlybird.


Oscar's birthday shirt was a 90-minute shirt with a big number 2 appliqued on the front.  It matched his car playmat because yes, I am that crazy.

Here are some images I created for Oscar's car party, which you are welcome to save for personal use.  Upload them to a photo editor (I use Picnik) and they are easily customizable to any age party.

  





Tuesday, 19 October 2010

my partner in crime for Crafting with the Stars

Hurray! My Crafting with the Stars partner is Melanie from The Crafty Cupboard!  I'm very excited to work with Melanie.  I've been a long time reader of her blog and she makes lovely projects.  You can see all of the other partner match-ups HERE.

Check in on Sunday to vote for Round One projects from the theme, Brand Inspired/Knock Offs.

Monday, 18 October 2010

Hear Me Squawk



Oscar's car playmat

My piece de resistance, Oscar's car playmat:

This project was truly a labor of love.  It took over 50 hours to complete, and at least 10 years off my life.  But ... the final product was worth it.  Hopefully Oscar and siblings will play with this for years to come, and someday he will appreciate the effort that went into it.


The playmat measures about 3x4 feet, and is almost entirely appliqued.  The road is painted with black acrylic paint, and then sewn around the edges to give it a crisp look and to make it more cohesive with the rest of the playmat.

I designed all of the buildings myself, except of course for the gas station and car wash, which I copied from the Fiskar's Car Activity Mat (they were too cute to resist).  For the gas pump hose, I substituted the shoelace with a elastic hairband.  The car wash strips are leather trim.

The playmat includes all of our favorite places around town, like Grandma and Grandpa's house, complete with their fruit trees:
Chicken Little, our local toy store:
The courthouse, which also double's as daddy's work:
Crushcakes Cupcakery and Trader Joe's:
In-N-Out burger:
and a school with the ever-important playground:
Other buildings include the train station, fire department, additional houses, our church, and of course we couldn't leave off the beach. We also have traffic signs, cross walks, parking spaces and a post box. 

Some of the buildings, like the courthouse and In-N-Out, look true to life.  I took liberties with others, like Crushcakes and all of the houses, to make them more festive.  If I made this mat look just like Santa Barbara, almost every building would be stucco with a red tile roof.

The playmat is backed with Riley Blake White Map from the Wheels collection.

All in all, a very satisfying project and a very happy birthday boy!

Sunday, 17 October 2010

Friday, 15 October 2010

a few things



  • My dear, sweet boy turns two years old tomorrow.  Can you believe it?  I feel like he was just born yesterday.  

I can't wait to show you Oscar's birthday present - it might be my favorite kid project yet.  It has taken me over 50 hours to draft, cut, and sew, and I'm about to drop dead of sleeplessness.  I was going to post about it today, but figured I should let the boy see it first.  So come back Monday!  (How's that for a tease?)
In the meantime ... HAPPY BIRTHDAY, OSCAR!

 

Thursday, 14 October 2010

The Myth of Shovel Ready

Me, January 2009:
People don’t usually spend their money buying things they don’t want or need, so for private transactions, this kind of inefficient spending is not much of a problem. But the same cannot always be said of the government. If the stimulus package takes the form of bridges to nowhere, a result could be economic expansion as measured by standard statistics but little increase in economic well-being.
The way to avoid this problem is a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of each government project. Such analysis is hard to do quickly, however, especially when vast sums are at stake. But if it is not done quickly, the economic downturn may be over before the stimulus arrives.
President Obama, Now:
In the magazine article, Mr. Obama reflects on his presidency, admitting that he let himself look too much like “the same old tax-and-spend Democrat,” realized too late that “there’s no such thing as shovel-ready projects.”

Wednesday, 13 October 2010

car party favor bags

The Riley Blake Wheels fabric collection is probably one of my all time favorite lines of fabric.  It is getting harder to find yardage these days, but I have a big stash of fat quarters on hand ... and it just happens to be the world's perfect fabric for Oscar's car party.


We are keeping this party very small, so with only a handful of kids coming, I had time to sew cute favor bags.  They are the world's easiest drawstring bag filled with a few little goodies (car crayons, a matchbox car, some stickers and a thank you note - inspired by this favor box at Blonde Designs Blog).


Dana has a fab tutorial for a drawstring bag, the Hobo Sack, on her blog, MADE.  I do mine differently, but the end result is essentially the same.  Maybe I'll show you how I make mine someday, but not today.  Today you can learn from Dana.  :) I have more party planning to do!



p.s.  if you are looking for yards of Wheels fabric, check etsy.  I found some at Fernandina Fibers.

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